Labour at the next General Election
Over the last ten years, the demise of centrist parties has been plain to see amidst escalating political polarisation. While “pasokification” ensued throughout Europe, moderate Labour MPs lost the leadership election to Corbyn, Remain lost to Brexit, Clinton lost to Trump, Haddad lost to Bolsonaro, and recently, Macron has found himself polling behind Le Pen. Despite this, in late 2020, Biden defeated Trump, marking a victory for moderate politics.
Many on the centre and soft-left of British politics believe that a perceptibly “sensible” option is the way to establish a broad political voter base, viewing Biden as the successful blueprint. Others argue that Biden was only able to win by benefitting from the discontent created by America’s catastrophic pandemic response. This, they say, will not translate to UK politics. Indeed, polling already shows the Tories enjoying a “Vaccine Bounce”, and the pandemic may well not even be a relevant factor in the next General Election. Regardless, for many on the Labour right, the historically bad performance in 2019 strengthens the idea that a return to centrist, New Labour-style politics is the route to victory.
Importantly, Biden and Starmer appear to have different approaches with regards to the political left, at least superficially. Biden, aware of popular support for the more left-wing politicians like Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez, co-opted the language of radical progress and engaged with issues such as environmentalism. Starmer, conversely, has taken a more hostile approach towards the left. This is guided by the desire to be seen as breaking with the Corbyn years, and is considered necessary to render Labour “electable” once again. The risk, of course, is disengagement with the party, and large numbers of votes lost from the left, as Labour lurch towards the centre.
Regardless of these pitfalls, the moderate method of progressive and liberal optics combined with offering little in the way of transformative change, and hoping to secure victory by allowing your right-wing opponents’ incompetence to discredit themselves, is tried and tested across the pond. For this reason, Starmer will lead the Labour Party into the next election, hoping that there is sufficient public dissatisfaction after 14 years of Tory rule to open the door to a Labour victory.
In the interim period, Labour will have plenty of opportunity to articulate a vision for the UK that is designed to inspire voters and generate support. Currently, Labour are shying away from offering any substantial plans. One recent example among many is Starmer’s opposition to the Tory’s proposed corporate tax hikes. This policy is overwhelmingly popular, and one poll showed only 9% of people are opposed. It is difficult to imagine why Labour would simultaneously position themselves to the right of the Tories on this issue, and also so out-of-step with popular sentiment (this is project Electability, remember). Perhaps this is wise political manoeuvring in the long run, but at present it resembles tepid centrism, and recent polling reflects this.
